Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes burst onto the scene in 2024. One year after dominating college baseball at LSU, Skenes was mowing down hitters in the majors with his sizzling triple digit four-seam fastball and devastating splinker. The sensational debut earned Skenes NL Rookie of the Year honors and a third-place finish in Cy Young voting.
Expectations for Skenes’ sophomore season are sky high. But MLB insiders believe he’ll take a back seat to one pitcher in 2025, according to a panel of experts.
The Athletic’s annual starting pitcher survey, composed of 20 scouts, analysts and executives, found that Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is considered the best pitcher in baseball. The experts rank each starter on a scale of 1-5, creating tiers. The top pitchers in MLB reach Tier 1, which requires a perfect score of 100.
Only Skubal reached that rarified air, with survey respondents unanimously selecting him as baseball’s best starting pitcher. Skenes was ranked second, with a score of 98.5. He finished well ahead of third-ranked Zack Wheeler, who was given a 97.
Will Tarik Skubal outshine Paul Skenes in 2025?
Skubal was electric in 2024. He won the pitching triple crown, leading the American League in wins (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228). Skubal led all pitchers in wins, ERA and bWAR, finishing with 6.4 in 31 starts. He unanimously won the AL Cy Young Award.
Skubal had shown signs that a breakout campaign was coming. After starting the 2023 season on the 60-day injured list and having his debut pushed back to July, Skubal hit the ground running, dominating in 15 starts for the Tigers with a 2.80 ERA, 0.896 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 80.1 innings. Then, in 2024, he put it all together.
While Skenes could just as easily ascend to the next level after his phenomenal debut, The Athletic’s panel was concerned about injury risk. The Pirates’ star threw 294.7 innings between college ball, Triple-A and the Majors from 2023-2024. Given the increasing prevalence of pitcher injuries, the survey expressed a sense of uncertainty regarding Skenes’ 2025 season.
For his part, Skenes is ready to be unleashed. He’s ready to move past an innings limit this year, stating he’s ready to throw 240 innings in 2025. But respondents wonder how his arm will hold up under that new strain.
While fans voted Skubal the best pitcher in baseball and The Athletic’s survey of experts backs that claim up, Skenes could easily take another giant leap forward this season. Perhaps another year of dominance will lead to a new number one in 2026.
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