Houston basketball enters the NCAA Tournament, coming off another terrific season under head coach Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars have seamlessly transitioned from dominating the American Athletic Conference to running through the Big 12 in consecutive seasons. However, this year’s team completed the double, winning the regular season title and the conference tournament. And with this dominance, even the Big 12 commissioner is placing sky-high expectations on Houston as the program enters The Big Dance with the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region.
That being said, the Cougars are used to having high expectations going into March. And in the recent past, Kelvin Sampson’s teams have had seasons come to disappointing ends. In 2024 and 2023, Houston was also a No. 1 seed, and on both occasions, it lost in the Sweet 16. While there’s never any shame in making the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, this group wants to go further.
Houston basketball has a decorated past that includes multiple visits to the Final Four and players who went on to have Hall of Fame careers. But the Cougars have one thing missing on their mantle: a national championship. It’s a long road to San Antonio. The Midwest’s No. 1 seed has many potential pitfalls upcoming, including a possible Elite Eight clash with the Tennessee Volunteers. However, this roster gives Houston basketball its best chance since the years of Phi Slamma Jamma to break the program’s title drought. And there are several reasons why.
Houston basketball has had another phenomenal season in the Big 12 Conference
The Cougars finished the season 30-4 overall and a staggering 19-1 in Big 12 play. Kelvin Sampson’s team got off to a slow start, losing three of its first seven games. This included a defeat to a short-handed Auburn team and a loss to unranked San Diego State. While this group was returning a lot of contributors from last season, the Cougars were still adjusting to the loss of star point guard and reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead. Once this squad found its groove and identity, it never looked back, winning 26 of the next 27 games.
Houston’s only loss for the rest of the year came in an 82-81 nailbiter to Texas Tech. Kelvin Sampson’s team ultimately compiled an elite resume in both regular and advanced metrics. The Cougars compiled KemPom, NET, strength of record, and WAB rankings of No. 3 overall and a 14-3 record against Quadrant 1 teams. There was no question that this squad was a No. 1 seed, and in a different year, there was a chance it could’ve ranked first overall going into the NCAA Tournament.
Even though the Cougars have recently entered the tournament with a higher overall rank and more top-end talent, the 2025 roster is better constructed to make a deep run in March. This is mainly because this collection of players has all the strengths of past Houston teams, with several additional traits that make this group an even harder out in a single-elimination format.
Why the Cougars will win the national championship
Under Kelvin Sampson, Houston has always had several strengths that translate well to the March Madness format. In particular, the Cougars have been near the top of college basketball in defensive efficiency and offensive rebounding rate. Houston’s aggressive defense, which implements blitz traps on ball screens and denials in the post, has consistently gotten under opponents’ skins. This allows the Cougars to drag teams into the mud and get extra possessions through turnovers and offensive rebounds.
Getting opponents to play poorly is a very underrated quality in March. Throughout the course of six potential games, a team is bound to not always be at its best, especially on offense. Therefore, keeping opponents uneasy during these dips in play is essential and one of the main reasons Kelvin Sampson’s program has made it to at least the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament five straight times. The 2025 team is still elite on defense and in offensive rebounding. The Cougars may not turn opponents over as much this year, but they still can make foes play very poorly when needed.
What separates this group is both its depth and ability to shoot from deep. While the Cougars have not necessarily been inept on offense in the past, there have been times when it seems like there’s a lid on the basket. Particularly from three-point range, where, for example, Houston basketball ranked 133rd from deep last season. In contrast, Kelvin Sampson’s team is shooting 39.8% from deep in 2024-2025, ranking fourth overall in the country. The offense is way more explosive than in years past, giving the Cougars the ability to win different types of games.
In addition, Houston is less top-heavy in 2025. Past national champions have shown the importance of depth heading into March. This includes two-time defending champion UConn. The Huskies had more than a few players coming off the bench who could’ve started almost anywhere. In comparison, Houston has eight players who average more than 15 minutes per game. Several of these contributors can be the best player on any given day.
In 2023 and 2024, Houston couldn’t afford to have players like Jamal Shead or Marcus Sasser play poorly. Now, if leading scoring LJ Cryer has an off-shooting night, guards like Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan can assume that mantle. If forward J’Wan Roberts has a poor game defensively, Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis can step up. The Cougars have extra luxuries in 2025 that they did not have in the past. However, there is one thing to keep an eye on going forward that, unfortunately, has cost past Houston teams in The Big Dance.
The main concern for Houston heading into the tournament
Despite valid criticisms of previous Kelvin Sampson squads, some of those tournament eliminations came down to one common factor. Health. The Cougars have struggled with staying healthy down the stretch too many times recently. In 2022, starting guards Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark suffered season-ending injuries in December. In 2023, Sasser strained his groin in the AAC Tournament in what was a scary incident. And lastly, the Cougars’ Jamal Shead had a heartbreaking ankle injury that kept him out of the rest of the Sweet 16 loss to Duke.
Houston comes into the 2025 tournament with one injury concern to keep an eye on. J’Wan Roberts twisted his ankle in the Big 12 quarterfinals against Colorado. The senior subsequently sat out the rest of the conference tournament. While Roberts’ absence seemed primarily out of precaution, Kelvin Sampson still seemed uncertain whether the forward would be available for the first weekend. However, there is still some confidence that Roberts can return to full strength for this run.
The Cougars ultimately need Roberts to be healthy if they want to win the national championship. This group’s depth allows it to cover up for J’Wan’s absence against lesser opponents. However, should Houston basketball play a team like Tennessee and top squads in the Elite Eight and beyond, Roberts needs to be at full strength. So, there is that familiar concern for Kelvin Sampson’s program. But it looks to potentially be less concerning than in years’ past.
Overall, there are very few squads that can match this team’s level when clicking. And it’s fair to assume Houston basketball will be fully clicking if it gets to San Antonio. Playing in the Final Four in Texas will give the Cougars a distinct homecourt-like environment. Therefore, while the stars felt aligned for Kelvin Sampson’s team to win the national title in Houston in 2023, 2025 is truly the year when this program finally has the personnel that is built to break this championship drought.
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