San Diego State fell to the Last Four due to an early loss in the MWC tournament, while North Carolina was the last team in and has the most controversy surrounding them. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a North Carolina-San Diego State prediction and pick.
North Carolina is 22-13 and barely got into the NCAA Tournament. It has quality wins against Dayton, UCLA, SMU, and Pitt. However, the losses have piled up, with significant ones coming to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida, Louisville, Duke three times, and Clemson. The Tar Heels have a great chance to make some noise, but they need RJ Davis to have a giant game to get the win.
San Diego State is 21-9 this season. They have had quality wins against one-seed Houston, UC San Diego, Creighton, Boise State twice, Colorado State, and New Mexico. The Aztecs have suffered significant losses against Gonzaga, Oregon, Utah State twice, New Mexico, Colorado State, and Boise State. The Aztecs have a stifling defense, but they need Nick Boyd and Miles Byrd to show up for the Aztecs to advance to the first round.
Here are the North Carolina-San Diego State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NCAA First Four: North Carolina-San Diego State Odds
San Diego State: +3.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +138
North Carolina: -3.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 142.5 (-110)
Under: 142.5 (-110)
How to Watch North Carolina vs. San Diego State
Time: 9:10 pm ET/6:10 pm PT
TV: TruTV
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina has one of the best offenses in the ACC, only behind Duke. They score 80.8 points per game, have a 47.6% field goal percentage, and have a 35.3% three-point percentage. The Tar Heels have also fallen a bit to 22nd in adjusted offense on KenPom, with a rating of 118.9.
Three different Tar Heels are averaging over double digits on this offense. Davis is the best weapon on this offense, scoring 17 points per game. They have been okay at best with ball movement as a team, averaging 14.6 assists per game. Elliot Cadeau is the assists leader, averaging six per game.
The Tar Heels have the offense to score on almost anyone, and they have been on first recently. They have something to prove and should find some success scoring on the Aztecs, even with the Aztecs having an elite defense in their own right.
San Diego State’s offense has been a mixed bag this season because it has talent but has also been inconsistent. They score 70.9 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 44.4%, and have a three-point percentage of 33.5%. The offense has not been a strength, and KenPom is ranked 111th with a 109.8 rating.
Only two Aztecs average over double digits in scoring with Boyd and Miles Byrd. Boyd leads the team in scoring and passing with 13.2 points and four assists per game, respectively. The Aztecs also don’t move the ball well, averaging only 13.1 assists as a team. Byrd is just behind Boyd, averaging 12.6 points per game.
The Aztecs have playmakers and should do enough on this side of the court against an inconsistent North Carolina defense. They have not been reliable, but this matchup instantly becomes the X-factor in the game.
Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina’s defense has been a disaster this season and is a key reason they barely made the tournament. They allow 75 points per game, 43.2% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. They have jumped to 53rd in KenPom in adjusted defense with a 99.3 rating.
The Tar Heels’ frontcourt has depth, but no one who jumps out immediately. Ven-Allen Lubin leads the team in rebounds with 5.6 per game. The team’s perimeter and on-ball defense has struggled at times this season. Three players average at least one steal, and then Seth Trimble leads the team in steals with 1.4 per game.
The Tar Heels have talent and playmakers, and that might be enough to win this game against a slow and deliberate Aztecs offense that has talent but has also been inconsistent.
San Diego State’s defense has been the best unit in the Mountain West all year. They allow 63.6 points per game, 37.8% from the field, and 30.2% from behind the arc. This defense is also ranked highly on KenPom, ranking 13th in adjusted defense with a rating of 93.5.
The Aztecs’ frontcourt has been excellent because of its depth, and Magoon Gwath should be available in this game, too. Gwath is just ahead of Jared Coleman-Jones in rebounding, averaging 5.2 per game. He is also one of the best shot-blockers in the country, averaging 2.6 per game.
This defense is where they hang their hat across the board this season. This defense has been a lockdown unit, but the Tar Heels have various weapons to challenge the Aztecs on offense, making this the game’s matchup.
Final North Carolina-San Diego State Prediction & Pick
I think this is a coin-flip of a game. I believe the Tar Heels win the game outright, but San Diego State covers the small spread, and North Carolina wins by two.
Final North Carolina-San Diego State Prediction & Pick: San Diego State +3.5 (-108)
The post North Carolina vs. San Diego State prediction, odds, pick for NCAA First Four appeared first on ClutchPoints.
