The Final Four in San Antonio features four of college basketball’s best going head-to-head for the national title. After Auburn and Florida go at it in the first national semifinal at the Alamodome, top seeds Duke and Houston will clash in a battle between two of the best programs in college hoops.
Unlike the first matchup, which pits two SEC teams against each other, Duke and Houston will be squaring off for the first time this season, making this a fascinating matchup on paper.
Jon Scheyer is in his first Final Four as the head coach at Duke after taking over in 2022. This is his most talented team yet, with freshman phenom Cooper Flagg leading the way and size and length all over the floor. Coming into this Final Four, this Duke basketball squad is the favorite to cut down the nets.
Don’t tell that to Kelvin Sampson and a Houston team that is the toughest bunch in the nation year in and year out. That is no different this season for the team ranked No. 1 in KenPom on defense that will certainly give the Blue Devils its best shot as the underdog on Saturday night.
Here are three big factors that will determine who comes out on top in this titanic battle in San Antonio.
1. Can Houston withstand the size difference?
What Houston lacks in physical height, to easily makes up for it in heart, grit and toughness. Kelvin Sampson’s club has been undersized before, but it hasn’t been this undersized.
Duke doesn’t have a single player in its rotation smaller than 6-foot-5. The Blue Devils are massive in the front court and in the back court, and Houston will have to figure out how to mitigate that disadvantage.
On the other side, Sampson starts 6-foot-1 LJ Cryer, 6-foot-3 Emanuel Sharp and 6-foot-4 Milos Uzan. The Cougars are the best defense in the country, but it will be difficult for them to contest the shots of the much bigger Duke guards. As a result, Houston must do one of the things that it is best at: doing its work early. The Cougars must be absolutely locked in for 40 minutes with closeouts and rotations and not allow any looks from the outside that are even half-open.
On the inside, the trio of 6-foot-8 bigs in J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis are small on paper, but they have great length that helps make up for it. Still, Duke’s 7-foot-2 behemoth Khaman Maluach will tower over the Houston bigs, and his rim protection, rebounding and above-the-rim finishing could play a massive part in this game.
The way that Duke uses its size is what makes it so difficult to play against. The Blue Devils are elite at contesting and blocking shots and at using their length to constantly be disruptive on the defensive end of the floor. These Houston guards have played against bigger defenders all season, but it will still be a struggle for a team that takes a lot of jump shots to have to shoot over so many taller defenders.
2. How does Duke respond in a close game?
Duke has been one of the most dominant teams in the history of college basketball this season. Part of that is because of the weakness of the ACC, and part of it is because Duke is just that good. However, Scheyer and company haven’t played in very many close games this season, and that could become a big storyline if this one is tight coming down the stretch.
Incredibly, this Duke team has only played eight games that have been decided by single digits this season, and it is 5-3 in those games. That’s not a bad record by any stretch, but it pales in comparison to a Houston squad that has lived in thrillers all season long. Sampson’s club is an incredible 13-4 in such contests.
That’s nearly half of the Cougars’ games that have been relatively close coming down the stretch, so they have plenty of experience playing in tight games and in tense situations. Even in this tournament, Houston survived a huge comeback from Gonzaga in the Round of 32 before beating Purdue at the buzzer in the Sweet 16, while Duke has been fairly comfortable in all four of its wins.
Getting Duke into a close game in the final few minutes is a task that has been difficult enough in itself, but Duke has shown some cracks in those situations earlier in the season. Houston is also the older team with more veteran players, which could play a factor in a tight contest.
Maybe the biggest key to winning close games is free throw shooting, something that both of these teams excel at. Duke shoots it at 79% from the stripe, good for the 11th-best mark in the country. Houston doesn’t shoot it quite as well as a team, but if it has a lead, Cryer and Sharp both shoot it better than 87% from the line.
3. Who wins from the 3-point line?
Nets could be scorched in this game, as Duke and Houston are two of the best teams in college basketball at shooting the 3-ball. During the regular season, Houston ranked fourth in the nation at nearly 40% from deep, while Duke ranked 12th at just under 39%.
The Cougars didn’t shoot it quite as well at the regional in Indianapolis, but the trio of Sharp, Cryer and Uzan can really fill it up from the perimeter. Getting open may be more difficult against the bigger Duke team, as mentioned earlier, but if Houston can get open looks it is more than capable of knocking them down.
On the other side, Duke has been on an absolute tear from the 3-point line in the NCAA Tournament. In four games, the Blue Devils are 43-for-91 from beyond the arc and have been punishing any team that leaves them open from beyond the arc. Flagg and Kon Knueppel have been hot, Tyrese Proctor have been on an absolute tear and even the role players like Sion James have been knocking them down.
Both teams are also excellent at defending the 3-point line, making this a fascinating matchup on the perimeter. Both Duke and Houston’s opponents shoot less than 31% from beyond the arc this season, so both defenses are well-coached and are very adept at running teams off of the 3-point line.
As a result, the two teams may have to get creative with how they get their looks from the outside. Getting paint touches and kickouts will be critical and is one way to get open looks. Another way is off of offensive rebounds, a stat that Houston excels in while Duke lags behind a bit (in part because it doesn’t miss very many shots).
The 3-point line can be the great equalizer in any game. If one team can get hot from deep while the other runs cold, that could be the difference in a fairly evenly-matched contest.
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