One of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments in college basketball history has left us without much drama in the first two weekends. However, it also sets up a Final Four with four of the sport’s heavyweights doing battle in San Antonio. In the first game, the SEC regular season champion and the SEC Tournament Champion will go at it when Auburn and Florida square off for the second time this season.
The Gators won the first meting on the road in The Jungle by a score of 90-81 despite the absence of starting guard Alijah Martin.
Now, Bruce Pearl Auburn will look for its revenge against Todd Golden and the Gators, who have been one of the hottest teams in the nation. Florida is coming into this one on a 10-game win streak and has not lost since a Feb. 25 defeat on the road against Georgia.
Auburn star Johni Broome is coming off of a freak play where he appeared to injure both his elbow and his ankle, but he is practicing and appears ready to go for Saturday night.
Here are the three biggest factors that will decide which of these SEC powers will move on and have a shot at the title on Monday night.
1. Can Johni Broome get loose against a massive Florida front court?
This section is not injury related; the assumption is that Broome will be good to go for the game after practicing late in the week. However, Florida’s front court presents big challenges for any great big man due to its size and depth.
Florida will roll out four big men who can all play and impact the game on both ends of the floor. Micah Handlogten and Rueben Chinyelu are bigger bodies who are very physical players, while Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are the two most skilled players of the bunch. However, all four are at least 6-foot-9 and will give the 6-foot-10 Broome plenty of trouble.
That showed up in the first matchup between these two teams. Broome struggled to finish around the rim and was much more inefficient than he usually is in the post, finishing that game with just 18 points on 8-for-19 shooting. Florida also did an excellent job of not fouling Broome, as he earned just two free throw attempts and made one.
Auburn has two other bigs that will play center and allow Broome to play the four, but neither Chaney Johnson nor Dylan Cardwell really affect the game offensively. Both excel in other areas, but neither has the pull to prevent Broome from seeing double teams on the offensive end. As a result, the First Team All-American may not have a lot of space to operate on the inside.
Florida’s big men are also very well-coached defensively and play with very disciplined leverage. Broome, as a left-handed player, loves to get to his right shoulder to finish with his left hand, but the Florida bigs are very good at preventing that. Texas Tech big man JT Toppin, another lefty who had an All-American season, shot just 9-for-22 in the Elite Eight because he struggled to get quality looks down low with his strong hand.
Broome’s passing becomes a major factor in this game because of all the bodies that he sees down low. He finished the regular season meeting with six assists and has become a very good playmaker out of the post this season, and that will need to be on full display in this matchup.
2. Will Auburn be able to slow the game down?
You watch Auburn play and you don’t think of a team that plays slow, and they don’t have to grind it down Tony Bennett-style to get the win in this one. However, the Tigers have to turn this into a half-court affair in order to get Florida out of its comfort zone.
Florida is one of the best teams in the country on the fast break. Todd Golden and his squad score more than 16 points per game in transition, which ranks second in college basketball. On the other hand, Auburn scores less than 10 points per game on the break, which ranks in the middle of the pack.
That discrepancy showed up in a big way in the first meeting. Auburn scored just three points in transition while Florida broke loose for 14 fast break points, and the game was played at the Gators’ pace. When that happens, the athletic Florida guards can get out and get to the rim, and Walter Clayton Jr. is a deadly 3-point shooter off the dribble in transition.
That story cannot be the same on Saturday night if Auburn wants to come out on top and extend its season. Florida has shown that, if you can keep it in the half court, that it will get sloppy and bogged down. UConn was able to force the Gators into a ton of late-clock shots and ugly turnovers, and Auburn has the personnel to do the same if it is locked in.
Now, both teams need to find a balance here. If Auburn is able to keep the game in the half court, Florida has to find a better pace and rhythm in its sets than it did in that UConn game. On the other side, Auburn can’t be so in tune with slowing the game down that it is taking opportunities away from itself.
3. Which perimeter player can get hot?
This is a fun matchup on paper because it features a whole handful of microwave scorers that can get hot at any time. Both Auburn and Florida have survived this long in the tournament in large part because of some of those heaters during this NCAA Tournament, and another one could send one of these teams to the title game.
Clayton is the obvious candidate here. He took over both the UConn game and the Texas Tech game in the final minutes and nailed a pair of massive 3-pointers, seemingly with a constantly increasing degree of difficulty, in both games. The senior is a threat to go off for 30 or 40 points on any night and has shown that he will step up to the plate and take, and make, the big shot in the waning moments.
Florida also doesn’t make it this far without a huge game from Thomas Haugh in the Elite Eight. The reserve big man finished the win over Texas Tech with 20 points and 11 boards while making four 3-pointers and playing very good defense on JT Toppin.
Alijah Martin has had a steady tournament, but hasn’t gotten super hot yet. Will Richard has been very quiet for the Gators, but he could be due for a big half or two and has scored 25 or more points four times this season.
On the other side, there was arguably no more euphoric stretch in this NCAA Tournament than Tahaad Pettiford’s monster second half in the Sweet 16 against Michigan. The freshman is a tough shot machine when he gets going and also had a big day against Creighton in the Round of 32.
Alongside Pettiford in the Auburn backcourt, Denver Jones can also get going from downtown. He is more known for his defense, but Jones knocked down four triples in the Sweet 16. Miles Kelly is also one of the best shooters in the country and can get hot at any time despite struggling so far in the Big Dance.
Chad Baker-Mazara is the wild card and can impact the game in a massive way for Auburn, both positively and negatively. However, if he or one of these other Auburn guards gets going to complement Broome, the Tigers will be very difficult to beat.
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