We’re back with our final betting prediction and pick for the UFC Vegas 105 Main Card as we conclude with the headliner in the Featherweight (145) Division. Team Alpha Male’s No. 8-ranked Josh Emmett will take on No. 10 Lerone Murphy of Manchester, England. Check the UFC odds series for our Emmett-Murphy prediction and pick.
Josh Emmett (19-4) has gone 10-4 inside the UFC since 2016. He worked his way up to a title shot against Ilia Topuria, but fell short while taking the champ to a decision. He then bounced back with a massive knockout over Bryce Mitchell as he’s ready to get back on the title track. Emmett stands 5-foot-6 with a 70-inch reach.
Lerone Murphy (15-0-1) has gone an impressive 7-0-1 in the UFC since 2019. Aside from a draw during his UFC debut, Murphy has slowly made his way up the ladder with most recent unanimous decision wins over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige. Now, he’ll look to make another leap forward against a high-ranked opponent. Murphy stands 5-foot-9 with a 73.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Josh Emmett-Lerone Murphy Odds
Josh Emmett: +250
Lerone Murphy: -310
Over 4.5 rounds: -188
Under 4.5 rounds: +145
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Why Josh Emmett Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Bryce Mitchell – KO (overhand right, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Josh Emmett may be the iron man of the entire UFC and at 40 years old with almost a decade of UFC competition under the belt, he hasn’t lost a step in terms of his physical condition, fight style, and power. He’s capable of knocking out any fighter in the division with one punch as he demonstrated against Bryce Mitchell in a fight that wasn’t close. He also managed to take now-champion Ilia Topuria to a five-round decision and while he was battered during that fight, his chin held up well considering this point of his career.
Josh Emmett has a no-frills forward boxing style that utilizes a low-stance and tons of head movement. He closes the distance while avoiding shots, then explodes into his own punches with tight shots. Emmett works great in the pocket and he hasn’t lost much of his hand speed since joining the UFC. He’s earned five performance bonuses in the UFC and he’s fully capable of doing the same here if he can lull Murphy into a steady rhythm and catch him off-guard with a massive shot.
Why Lerone Murphy Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dan Ige – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO
Lerone Murphy has basically been flawless up to this point as he continues rising to the occasion against increasingly difficult competition. His last three consecutive fights have all been unanimous decisions in his favor, so he’s finding a consistent groove in controlling the fight over the course of three rounds. His only other five-round fight was his dominant victory over Edson Barboza, so Murphy is certainly built for this moment to face another dangerous striker. He may have to weather an early storm, but Murphy will be in a great spot to continue his undefeated run as the betting favorite here.
Murphy is an extremely technical and sound kickboxer that does a fantastic job of managing the range. He’s got a solid reach against many of his opponents and uses it to create a safe striking distance. He doesn’t take much damage as he slips punches well, which will have to serve him well against the looping shots coming back from Emmett. The counter shots will be key for Murphy during this fight as he’ll be looking to use Emmett’s aggressive offense against him.
Final Josh Emmett-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick
This will be another exciting bout between two experienced strikers looking to mount a title run. Josh Emmett is coming off one of the nastiest KO’s we’ve seen against Bryce Mitchell and it’s clear his power hasn’t lost a step, especially against young, hungry competitors. Lerone Murphy, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency with seven-straight wins and three unanimous decisions leading up to this one. It’ll be a battle between explosive power and an even-flowing striking attack.
We know Josh Emmett will be able to withstand the offense from Murphy as his chin holds up very well. While Lerone Murphy will have the pace and striking rhythm working, he’s still accustomed to fighting towards a decision and not threatening the knockout. With Josh Emmett’s ability to wrestle along the cage, this could become a problem as he steals control time.
Ultimately, I think five rounds is too much time for Josh Emmett to not eventually land a huge shot that sits Murphy down. He’s got great betting value coming in off a win, so let’s roll with the underdog for this Main Event.
Final Josh Emmett-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick: Josh Emmett (+250)
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