After years of circling each other’s careers, longtime veterans Brad Tavares (20-10) and Gerald Meerschaert (37-18) face each other in the Octagon at UFC Vegas 105. It is time to continue our UFC Vegas 105 odds series with a Brad Tavares-Gerald Meerschaert prediction and pick.
Tavares, 37, will make his first walk after a fairly active, albeit unsuccessful, year in 2024. The divisional mainstay enters 2025 after going 0-2 in 2024, losing to Gregory Rodrigues and JunYong Park. The Hawaiian has now lost four of his last five fights, going without a win since beating the returning Chris Weidman at UFC 292.
Meerschaert, also 37, had a more successful year in 2024, going 2-1. However, after picking up submission wins over Bryan Barberena and Edmen Shahbazyan, Meerschaert lost to promotional debutant Reinier de Ridder at UFC Vegas 100 to end the year. In the loss to de Ridder, Meerschaert suffered his first submission loss since 2018.
Here are the UFC Vegas 105 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 105 Odds: Brad Tavares-Gerald Meerschaert Odds
Brad Tavares: -225
Gerald Meerschaert: +185
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Brad Tavares Will Win
Tavares has been the gatekeeper to the top 15 for several years now, typically beating similar veterans like himself while losing to the up-and-coming prospects of the division. He has recently been matchup up with opponents that fall into the latter category, entering UFC Vegas 105 on a two-fight skid and just 1-4 in his last five fights. Yet, against Meerschaert, Tavares finally gets to fight another veteran. In the last 10 years, Tavares is 6-0 against fighters his age or older.
In Meerschaert, Tavares also gets to fight a grappler, a style he tends to fare well against. In his career, Tavares has consistently maintained a bullet-proof takedown defense, fending off 80 percent of opponent attempts. His last three wins all came against grappling-based fighters with a simple game plan of defending takedowns and picking them apart at range. Chris Weidman, Omari Akhmedov, and Antonio Carlos Junior went a combined 3-for-29 on their takedowns against Tavares. Completing just 35 percent of his takedowns in the UFC, Meerschaert does not figure to do much better.
With three knockout losses since 2019, Tavares’ previously durable chin is beginning to be called into question. However, his recent struggles against power should not be an issue against Meerschaert, who has just three recorded knockdowns in his 22-fight UFC career.
Why Gerald Meerschaert Will Win
While Tavares tends to only lose to legitimate contenders in his career, he is still just 1-4 in his last five fights. That lone win came over Chris Weidman, who was coming off a two-year-long layoff due to a broken leg and has since retired. Although Meerschaert and Tavares are the same age, the former has looked much better lately, with two submission wins in the last year. Two of Meerschaert’s last three wins — Edmen Shahbazyan and Bruno Silva — are also against fighters who have dominant wins over Tavares.
It will be a painstaking process to get Tavares down, but if he does, Meerschaert will be in full control. In Tavares’ most recent fight, JunYong Park managed to get him down early in the third round and controlled him the rest of the way for the victory. At this point in his career, Tavares can struggle to return to his feet if he finds himself on his back.
Tavares, a volume striker, can fall into a cardio kickboxing-like trance at times, focusing solely on out-pointing his opponent instead of prioritizing a finish. That technical approach has worked in his favor late in his career but forces him to be near-perfect for all 15 minutes. Meerschaert has made a career out of pulling off comeback victories late in fights, needing just one mistake to capitalize on a victory. Without much of a finishing threat from Tavares, that could come again at any given moment.
Final Brad Tavares-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick
Fans will always find it tempting to take Meerschaert at underdog odds, but this one will be tougher for him to pull off. While both Tavares and Meerschaert have been up-and-down in their careers, the difference in level of competition is vast. Recent losses might suggest an athletic decline for the 37-year-old Hawaiian, but Meerschaert, also 37, has similar concerns.
Against veteran grapplers, Tavares has consistently been able to execute the same game plan. Although slower than he used to be, the athleticism and strength advantage he will have over Meerschaert will still be enough to thwart the latter’s sluggish takedown attempts. Tavares was controlled in his last fight, but it took three takedowns in one minute from Park to get him down in the final frame. Meerschaert does not have that kind of chain wrestling in his game.
Some might hope for another late comeback win for Meerschaert, but Tavares is not the kind of fighter to make himself vulnerable to that possibility. Without much of a killer instinct and endless cardio, the odds of Tavares gassing himself out while trying to finish Meerschaert are slim to none. Expect Tavares, who has never been submitted in his career, to pull off another technical decision victory by keeping Meerschaert at the end of his strikes.
Final Brad Tavares-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick: Brad Tavares by decision (-110), Over 2.5 Rounds (-188)
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