The Dallas Stars are among the favorites to dominate the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup. Thanks to their savvy acquisition of Mikko Rantanen, the Stars have been rolling since the trade deadline. He fits in much better with Dallas than with the Carolina Hurricanes, and the team’s results show that. They are just four points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the top seed in the Central Division with one game in hand. However, there are reasons to put the brakes on giving the Stars the Stanley Cup this early.
The trajectory of the playoffs could quickly flip if the Stars pass the Jets for first in the division. The 2/3 matchup in the Central will be a classic no matter which teams make it, but it’ll be a tough series to start a run and have to continue playing for another month and a half. The first-place seed in the Central hopes the second and third seeds beat up on each other and leave nothing but scraps for them in the second round.
The Stars are one of the hottest teams in the Western Conference, bested only by the St. Louis Blues. The Stars are 7-1-2 over their last 10 games, putting them within striking distance of the Jets. Winnipeg has to wonder what else they can do, as they’ve won seven of their past 10 games but are losing ground rapidly. Dallas will give their best shot to get that first seed, but it could be trouble for them if they don’t. Even if they do, the first seed last season only got them as far as the Western Conference Finals before running out of steam.
What happens in an Avalanche-Stars first-round series?
The Avalanche aren’t a team the Stars want to face in the first round. Sure, they already defeated them in a seven-game series last season, and this time one of the Avalanche’s top players is in the Stars’ lineup. However, the Avalanche improved their team in some key areas, including the net, where they completely revamped their tandem with the additions of MacKenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. It’d be a series that comes down to the wire, and some of Colorado’s additions might be the thing that sways it in their favor.
Rantanen playing a seven-game series against the Avalanche should excite even the most beginner hockey fans. The Avalanche traded Rantanen to the Eastern Conference in hopes the move would never backfire on them, but they couldn’t have predicted him moving back to a division rival before the trade deadline. Rantanen has an opportunity to stick a series loss in the face of the front office that pulled the rug out from underneath their star.
Let’s preface it by saying that Rantanen is a great player and will be successful with the Stars in the long term. However, expecting him to dominate the Avalanche in the first round might be premature. It took him a long time to get over the initial trade, leading to his timely end with the Hurricanes’ organization. Can we expect him to pull it together and excel for the Stars under the intense pressure of facing his old team?
Dallas grabbing first place can flip this opinion, but if the playoff matchups stay firm, the Stars will struggle to get past the Avalanche in the first round.
Miro Heiskanen’s injury looms large
The Stars will need all hands on deck if they want to give the Avalanche their best shot in the first round. If the teams square off, Miro Heiskanen’s injury will be a massive storyline. Heiskanen’s projected return is anywhere from the start of the playoffs to the end of the first round. Dallas would prefer not to rush back their star defenseman, but a matchup with the Avalanche might make that a requirement.
It’s becoming increasingly likely that Gabriel Landeskog will return for the Avalanche. It’d be a massive psychological advantage if he did, and the Stars countering with the return of Heiskanen would do wonders for the rest of the team. The Stars’ chances of surpassing the first round increase dramatically if Heiskanen returns.
It’s another reason why passing the Jets could be huge for the Stars. If they get the Minnesota Wild or one of the other second Wild Card-contending teams in the first round, Heiskanen can wait until the second round to return. Dallas would much rather a rested and 100% healthy Heiskanen returning in Round 2 than throwing him in for the first round and risking further injury or fatigue.
We’ve seen some improbable returns in the postseason before, but the mobile defenseman returning on a bum knee could make or break the Stars’ Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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