Most times, matchups in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament bring a pair of unfamiliar teams from different conferences into the arena to battle it out for a spot in the title game. On Friday night in Tampa Bay, that will not be the case. South Carolina and Texas have already met three times this season, and now the two powerhouses will battle it out one final time for a spot in the national championship game.
South Carolina won two of the three meetings with Texas this season, including the most recent one in the SEC Tournament Championship Game in front of a de facto home crowd in Greenville, SC.
Both teams have had to survive some tough tests in this tournament. South Carolina trailed in the fourth quarter against both Maryland in the Sweet 16 and Duke in the Elite Eight, while Texas had to grind out a gritty win against Tennessee in the Sweet 16 before fending off a furious TCU rally in the Elite Eight.
Now, both are meeting up once again in the Final Four with everything on the line. The stars will be out in full force, but the little details could end up deciding the winner.
Here are three keys that could decide who advances to the national title game on Sunday afternoon.
1. Can South Carolina knock down 3-pointers?
The 3-point line is traditionally never a factor in Texas women’s basketball games. The Longhorns make just over three triples a game and attempt just over 10 a night from beyond the arc. The Longhorns hold their opponents to very similar numbers, and all of those marks rank in the bottom five in the nation.
That’s not going to cut it against a South Carolina team that can match the Longhorns for both size and physicality on the interior. Vic Schaefer’s group can overwhelm most teams in those two departments, but it won’t be able to do that against South Carolina.
We know that Texas isn’t really going to even try to knock down shots from the outside. It finished just 1-for-8 from deep in the conference title game, and it even went 0-for-4 from deep in its lone win over the Gamecocks this season. However, South Carolina has a chance to gain a massive advantage in this game if it can generate good looks from the perimeter and knock them down.
Shooting the 3-ball isn’t exactly a massive strength for Dawn Staley and company either — they make just under six a game — but they found room for 39 attempts in three games against a Texas team that might be the best in the country at running you off the 3-point line. Getting those shots to fall could be the difference in this game.
2. Who owns the paint?
If Texas isn’t going to shoot threes — spoiler alert, it isn’t — it absolutely must dominate on the interior. Of course, that’s easier said than done, but it may be the only way to come out on top, and the three previous meetings this season show that.
In the first meeting, a 67-50 South Carolina win in Columbia, the Gamecocks finished plus-2 on the glass and even in points in the paint. That isn’t exactly dominating, but South Carolina also held Texas to just 27.8% shooting with most of those looks coming on the interior. Texas made just one 3-pointer in that game, so it was unable to find any offense at all.
The third meeting, a 64-45 win for South Carolina in the conference championship game, was even more heavily skewed toward Staley’s club. The Gamecocks finished that game with a plus-22 margin in the paint and also won the rebounding battle. Once again, Texas made just one 3-pointer and shot less than 30% from the field, something that has become a common theme in this matchup.
The second meeting, a 66-62 Texas win in Austin, is the outlier in the series. Texas didn’t make a single 3 in that game but still shot 44% from the floor. The Longhorns also were plus-7 in rebounding and plus-14 in points in the paint.
Texas owns the paint against most teams because of Taylor Jones’ ability to score and rebound on the interior. Kyla Oldacre is also coming off of one of the best games of her career in the Elite Eight and will have her hands full in this game. If Texas wants to get the win, the battle inside must look a lot like the meeting in Austin than the other two.
3. Will Madison Booker be the best player on the court?
This may seem like a cliche question, but it’s a legitimate one in this game. South Carolina doesn’t have one singular superstar that it relies on night in and night out, while Madison Booker had a relatively inefficient second weekend of the tournament.
It will be interesting to see, if Texas is able to force Dawn Staley’s hand, if the legendary South Carolina head coach lets MiLayisa Fulwiley get some extra run in this game. The explosive sophomore is the most talented scorer on this Gamecocks roster, but she comes off the bench and only plays about 19 minutes a game. Fulwiley really struggled in the Elite Eight against Duke, scoring just five points and committing four turnovers in 11 minutes.
Despite that, Staley may get to a point where she has to trust Fulwiley in this game. Texas is super athletic and is great at pressuring the ball. While the youngster may struggle with some turnovers against the Texas pressure, she is the jailbreak that South Carolina could need.
The bigs on either side of this matchup have come out relatively in the wash in all three matchups, which makes Booker the difference maker in the game. She is the SEC Player of the Year and she was by far the best player on the court in that Longhorns win back in February.
She is the best shot maker on the floor and will be able to get her shot off over smaller defenders from the mid-range. Booker needs to be extremely aggressive right from the jump and let it fly, whether the shots are going in or not, and the three previous meetings tell the story loud and clear on that.
In Texas’ win over South Carolina, Booker scored 20 points on 22 shots. In the two losses, she scored 17 points on 32 shots. South Carolina has shown that, over 120 minutes, it has a lot of advantages in this matchup. The Gamecocks don’t have Madison Booker, and that has to be the difference in this game in order for Texas to get a win.
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