The Pirates visit the Rays in Tampa Bay! The Pirates have started the season slowly, while the Rays have been the opposite and are playing well to start the year. This is an intriguing matchup for both teams in Tampa Bay. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Rays prediction and pick.
Pirates-Rays Projected Starters
Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Shane Baz
Carmen Mlodzinksi (5-5) with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 2024.
Last Start:
Away Splits: 3-2 (3.38 ERA)
Shane Baz (4-3) with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2024.
Last Start:
Home Splits: 2-1 (3.31 ERA)
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Rays Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +130
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Rays
Time: 7:05 pm ET/4:05 pm PT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Sun
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates finished last season with a 76-86 record and started this year with a 1-3 record. They struggled behind the plate and on the mound last year. The bats have gotten off to a slow start this season, but the pitching has been red-hot. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Tommy Pham have been decent despite some of the team’s struggles behind the plate. The pitching staff has been great, with Bailey Falter, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Andrew Heaney, and they have the makings of one of the best in the MLB this season.
It seems like the Pirates are starting Carmen Mlodzinski on the mound. He had a 5-5 record, a 3.38 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP. Through 50.2 innings, he allowed 22 runs on 41 hits with 19 walks and 46 strikeouts. He also had a K/BB ratio of 2.4. Mlodzinski does not get the headlines that some of the other pitchers on the roster do, but this is a tough matchup against a Rays offense that has started the year red-hot.
The Pirates’ offense has struggled this season. They are 25th in the MLB in team batting average at .184 after having a batting average of .234 last season. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew McCutchen lead the team in most important batting categories. Kiner-Falefa leads the team in batting average at .333, in OBP at .500, and in total hits at four. McCutchen leads the team in home runs with one and RBI with two. This offense has been inconsistent to start the season, and this is going to be a tough matchup against Shane Baz because he had a solid year last season on the mound for the Rays.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays were inconsistent last season, with an 80-82 record, and then they have a 2-1 record so far. The Rays are below average on offense and in pitching as well. This offense struggled last year but has gotten off to a red-hot start to the 2025 season. The pitching has not skipped a beat after playing well last season and transitioning to this season. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Jonny DeLuca, and Christopher Morel make up a good offense for the Rays. On the mound, Zach Eflin, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Zack Littell make up a great pitching staff for this season.
The Rays are starting Shane Baz on the mound. He has a 4-3 record, a 3.06 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. In 79.1 innings, he has allowed 28 runs on 57 hits with 69 walks and 27 strikeouts. He also had a 2.6 K/BB ratio for the season. Baz has a great matchup against this Pirates’ offense. Pittsburgh has some playmakers, but Baz has the talent to take advantage of this offense.
The offense for the Rays has gotten red-hot to start the year. They are fourth in team-batting average at .286 after finishing with a .230 last season. Caminero, Lowe, and DeLuca lead the team in most batting categories. Caminero leads in batting average at .500 and in hits at five. Lowe is also the home run leader with one and RBI at two. Finally, DeLuca leads the team in OBP at .545. The Rays have a great offense, and they should be able to get what they want against Mlodzinski in this matchup at home.
Final Pirates-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Pirates have had good pitching, but the Rays are red-hot on offense. Tampa Bay has the better pitcher, too, with Baz than Mlodzinski. Tampa Bay wins and covers in this game against Pittsburgh.
Final Pirates-Rays Prediction & Pick: Rays -1.5 (+134)
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