In the volatile world of baseball, consistency is something to be cherished. Many fans acknowledge the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves for constantly vying for championships and clinching one divisional title after another. Despite being under constant scrutiny, the New York Yankees deserve their due for compiling 32 straight winning seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians all get a nod for making the most of their modest payrolls. But what about the Seattle Mariners?
The M’s are the pillar of consistency that gets little fan fare. They have won 85-plus games in four consecutive years and accomplished the feat six times in the last decade. But this franchise does not get the respect that the perennial big-market contenders do, nor is it extended the same sympathy that the low-payroll ballclubs receive. Instead, Seattle has become a punchline.
It contains the foundation of what should be a proud organization but lacks the accolades and reputation to secure that label. The Mariners have a marketable star in Julio Rodriguez, a first-rate pitching rotation and one of the more highly regarded ballparks in MLB. And yet, ownership is failing to capitalize on its advantages. Fans are both flummoxed and frustrated by the direction the team has been heading toward in the last couple of years.
John W. Stanton is not investing in a sufficient lineup, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been unable to piece together a championship-caliber roster via the trade market. Narrowly missing the playoffs the last two years and in 2021 is the cruel byproduct of this ill-advised organizational philosophy.
Sure, other fan bases have it worse, but how much longer must The Emerald City watch its beloved squad squander its potential? We will see if we can find an answer to that question in our bold predictions for the Mariners’ 2025 season. I promise to lighten up with the gloom and doom.
Julio Rodriguez finishes in top 3 in AL MVP voting
I told you it would get better. Do not confuse my scathing prelude as an indictment on the star power that emanates through T-Mobile Park on a fairly regular basis. That was directed at the Mariners brass, not their talent. Rodriguez specifically commands ample attention.
Yes, the 24-year-old center fielder can certainly be held accountable for a fairly underwhelming individual campaign in 2024, but even in a down year, which included a .273/.325/.409/.734 slash line, he still posted a 4.3 WAR season. Based on the numbers Rodriguez produced in his first two seasons, I am guessing last year’s output is close to his floor. That means a resurgence is on the table for 2025.
Considering he played plus-defense in one of the most important positions in the sport, the two-time All-Star can realistically vault himself into the American League MVP conversation by belting around 35 home runs while slugging .480-500 and stealing around 30 bases. He has already accomplished these things. It is just a matter of putting everything together.
I realize it sound likes I am simplifying a highly demanding objective, but Rodriguez has the tools to become a special player in this league. He displayed them for extended stretches from 2022-23, and did so after slow starts and with minimal protection in the lineup. Assuming pitchers continue to respect catcher Cal Raleigh’s prodigious power (64 homers across the last two years), Julio Rodriguez should see decent pitches.
I believe he will pounce on them and re-establish himself as one of the future faces of baseball. He will not get his hands on the MVP award quite yet, but the Dominican Republic native will be firmly in the race.
Mariners ace Logan Gilbert wins AL Cy Young
Given how we started things off, this is probably not what you expected. Like Mariners fans, I can acknowledge both the glaring flaws and undeniable strengths that scatter throughout the roster. Logan Gilbert certainly falls under the latter category.
The trusty right-hander leads a starting pitching rotation that should once again be among the best in baseball, assuming George Kirby overcomes his shoulder inflammation. Regardless, Gilbert is poised to ascend into genuine stardom this upcoming season. He has tallied a sub-3.80 ERA while recording 170-plus strikeouts and 185-plus innings in each of his last three campaigns.
Last year might have marked his first All-Star Game invitation, but Gilbert has been a force on the mound for a while now. He already boasts elite advanced metrics, posting an MLB-best 0.887 WHIP, a spectacular .196 batting average against and a welcome 4.6 walk percentage in 2024. The 2018 first-round draft pick also totaled 220 Ks and led the big leagues with 208 2/3 innings pitched. He checks nearly all the boxes.
Though, because his 3.23 ERA fell short of the gold standard, Gilbert earned a sixth-place finish in Cy Young voting. But at almost 28 years of age (birthday in May), this hurler is in position to enjoy his most notable year yet.
Tarik Skubal might continue to mesmerize the masses in his quest for a second consecutive Cy Young award, and Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet and maybe even fellow Mariners righty George Kirby should all be in the hunt for the prize as well. However, the signs and statistics are pointing in Logan Gilbert’s favor.
Just to be safe, though, Seattle’s lineup should do its part to ensure that its ace wins more than nine games. Fittingly enough, that brings me to my final prediction. Here is where the tone switches back to one of disappointment.
The M’s fall short of October yet again, this time leading to major changes
When considering how the last couple of years have unfolded, the first part of this prediction does not seem so bold. It would definitely be unacceptable, though. The reigning AL champion Yankees’ rotation is severely diminished with Gerrit Cole undergoing Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil out for approximately three months with a lat strain. The Baltimore Orioles lost Corbin Burnes. And the Astros no longer have Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman, leaving the AL West in a state of uncertainty.
This should be where I say the Mariners will swoop in and seize the pennant for the first time in franchise history. But I cannot do that. You could argue I am a bit reluctant to place faith in this ballclub after predicting it to win the division in 2023 and thoroughly explaining why it could win the World Series. I won’t put that on the M’s, as it was always overly optimistic. Though, my terrible miscalculation has enabled me to spot this team’s weaknesses more easily.
And it appears that they still exist. Jerry Dipoto did not add the impactful bat fans were hoping for this past winter. Following some of last offseason’s misfires, the longtime executive played it far more passively this time around. Keeping the stellar starting rotation intact is understandable, but some type of splash was needed.
The Mariners offseason made us angry pic.twitter.com/sjkCLWB4AL
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) February 12, 2025
Although 2020 Silver Slugger Donovan Solano is the kind of contact hitter Seattle requires, he is 37 years old. Such a player should not be your biggest addition, especially after an unsatisfactory outcome. But that’s just it. These solid yet ultimately unsuccessful records are not treated with the exasperation they deserve. I believe that will change if Seattle misses the playoffs in a similarly agonizing fashion in 2025.
And that is something that is likely hard for people to wrap their heads around. The organization has stayed stuck in its ways for the least half-decade, so who is to say it will have an epiphany? I hear you, but management can only withstand so much ridicule and rage from the fans. Just look at the Boston Red Sox. They flipped the switch. And I think Seattle will too, after another bitterly disappointing finish.
The Mariners finished in the bottom-third of the most important offensive categories last season, accumulating a batting average that was only three points better than the historically abysmal Chicago White Sox. The lineup should improve with Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena all hitting near the top of it for a full season, but it still does not inspire a ton of optimism.
If Gilbert claims the Cy Young and Rodriguez competes for the MVP like I predict, another October-less campaign will be impossible for management to stomach. Action will subsequently be taken. Hence, there could actually be a ray of light beaming through the impending clouds. And then, the 2026 Mariners bold predictions will be what fans deserve.
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