The Denver Nuggets will battle the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday at the Paycom Center. It will be a potential playoff preview as we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Thunder prediction and pick.
The Thunder lead the head-to-head series 106-95. Also, the Thunder are 6-4 over their past 10 games against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are 4-1 over their past five games at the Paycom Center. So far, the teams have split the season series, with the Thunder routing the Nuggets 102-87 in the opener on October 24, 2024, and the Nuggets returning the favor with a 124-122 win over the Thunder on November 6, 2024.
Here are the Nuggets-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Thunder Odds
Denver Nuggets: +7.5 (-106)
Moneyline: +260
Oklahoma City Thunder: -7.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -320
Over: 243.5 (-112)
Under: 243.5 (-108)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
TV: ABC
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread/Win
Nikola Jokic had another historic performance, the latest of many he has had in his prolific career. Amazingly, the three-time MVP had one of his better performances in a season with some ups and downs. Performances like this have showcased why Jokic is still in the running for MVP, even if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the favorite. When the Nuggets defeated the Thunder, it did not come easy.
Firstly, they trailed 66-55 at halftime. But a monster third quarter helped propel them to the finish line. Then, a block by Peyton Watson sealed the win. Russell Westbrook led the Nuggets with 29 points while shooting 10 for 15 from the floor. Additionally, Michael Porter Jr. had 24 points while shooting 7 for 16 from the field. Christian Braun also added 24 points while shooting 7 for 15. Jokic, who went off against the Phoenix Suns on Friday, had 23 points in this game.
The Nuggets shot 47.2 percent from the field, including 42.1 percent from beyond the arc. Also, they held the Thunder to 44 percent from the floor. The Nuggets also won the board battle 55-47. Likewise, they had eight steals and blocked six shots.
It was not the best start for the Nuggets, but a great third quarter helped them. Significantly, there have been many lulls this season for the Nuggets, even if they come in as the third-best team in the Western Conference. But they need to play a complete game to compete against the Thunder.
The Nuggets will cover the spread if they can get production from everyone in the lineup. Then, they must clamp down on Gilgeous-Alexander and force him to go in another direction.
Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Thunder had a solid win on Friday, adding to a prolific season that has seen them dominate the Western Conference. Now, they will look to replicate the results of their first game against the Nuggets, where they destroyed them.
They opened things up with a 31-24 lead after the first quarter and a 58-51 halftime lead. Then, a great third quarter skyrocketed them to a larger lead. Gilgeous-Alexander had 28 points while shooting 11 for 24 from the field. Also, Chet Holmgren had 25 points while shooting 11 for 18 from the floor. Jalen Williams had 12 points, while Aaron Wiggins added 15 points off the bench.
While that win was great, the Thunder look significantly different this time around. Holmgren is dealing with a leg injury, while Williams has a wrist injury. Holmgren was one of 11 players on the injured list before Friday’s game, and that may factor into how this one goes. As the season inches closer to April, the Thunder must balance winning games while keeping players healthy for the stretch run.
The Thunder will cover the spread if Gilgeous-Alexander can set the pace while also deferring to his teammates. Then, they must contain Jokic and not let the rest of the Denver starters beat them.
Final Nuggets-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets are 31-31-1 against the spread, while the Thunder are 37-23-1 against the spread. Moreover, the Nuggets are 15-17 against the spread on the road, while the Thunder are 19-10-2 against the spread at home. The Nuggets are 7-3 against the spread when facing the division, while the Thunder are 6-7 against the spread when facing the division.
This will be an exciting battle! It is one we might see again in May. Significantly, I think the Thunder are hurting at the worst time. The Nuggets will expose this as they go into Oklahoma City and make this a close and exciting game at the end. While I am not positive about the Nuggets stealing the win on the road, I believe they will make this a fun game and cover the spread on the road.
Final Nuggets-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets: +7.5 (-106)
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