The UFC 313 main card will begin with a dynamic lightweight bout between King Green (32-16-1, 1 NC) and Mauricio Ruffy (11-1). It is time to continue our UFC 313 odds series with a King Green-Mauricio Ruffy prediction and pick.
Green, 38, continues to be one of the most active fighters in the UFC, even late in his career. While Green managed to fight his way back into the rankings in 2023, he has since lost his spot in the top 15. He is coming off a first-round technical submission loss to Paddy Pimblett at UFC 304.
Ruffy, 28, is one of the leading members of the esteemed Fighting Nerds gym. Though just 2-0 in the UFC, Ruffy has already gathered a significant following due to his fan-friendly fight style and brutal knockout power. The Brazilian is coming off a dominant decision win over James Llontop at UFC 309, his sixth consecutive win.
Here are the UFC 313 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 313 Odds: King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Odds
King Green: +340
Mauricio Ruffy: -440
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why King Green Will Win
Green has nearly five times the amount of professional fights as Ruffy does. He will make his 27th walk to the Octagon at UFC 313, over double the amount of overall fights that Ruffy has to his name. When Green wins, it is typically leaning on that high-level experience and his cardio with a late finish or decision. His pace and volume, especially down the stretch, typically reign supreme.
If Green can survive the first round, the odds of the fight swinging in his direction dramatically increase. Ruffy has won 91 percent of his victories by knockout, with his last win over Llontop his lone decision nod. While he won that fight, he faded significantly in the final two rounds and was unable to finish a visibly compromised opponent. Llontop is nowhere near Green’s level of striking. If Green is put in that situation, he will pour it on Ruffy late.
Both Green and Ruffy are unconventional strikers who keep their hands low and rely on speed, movement, and vision. Both have realized tremendous success with such an approach, but Ruffy has yet to face a similar opponent. Conversely, Green has seen nearly everything at this stage of his career. Green is notoriously difficult to hit — as shown by his 62 percent striking defense — especially for a low-volume, power-heavy striker like Ruffy.
Why Mauricio Ruffy Will Win
With experience comes deterioration, and Green is beginning to show noteworthy wear and tear of late. At 38, Green is 1-2 in his last three fights, with both losses coming in the first round. Green’s last four losses have all been inside the distance, including three by knockout. All but one of Ruffy’s 11 career victories have come by knockout.
There are a lot of similarities in Green and Ruffy’s fight styles, but in many respects, the Brazilian is a younger, more explosive version. Green losing his last fight to Pimblett by submission is not surprising, but he was struggling on the feet before being choked unconscious. He appeared visibly slower than he had before, with his reactions being much more delayed than they typically are. Pimblett was able to find a lot of success with his leg kicks, which are one of Ruffy’s biggest weapons.
Against a cardio-based fighter like Green, Ruffy will have to manage his energy, particularly early. However, the style matches up for him, as Green is typically a slow starter. If he can find the chin of Green, there is a good chance he could have another early night. Power punchers like Ruffy are not typically as fast and accurate as he is.
Final King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick
The way Ruffy looked late in his last fight caused reason for potential concern, particularly as he advances up the ladder. Those concerns could show themselves against Green, who gains momentum like a snowball rolling downhill as the fight progresses. If the fight reaches round three, it could get very dicey for Ruffy. The issue for Green is getting there, which seems unlikely at this point in his career.
Since 2022, when Green loses, it has been in dominant fashion. He has been knocked unconscious in each of his last three losses, twice by vicious knockout. His excellent defensive head and shoulder movement have always protected his questionable chin strength, though both were notably diminished against Pimblett. Perhaps that can be attributed to the odd start time, but losing the way he has lately is discouraging ahead of a matchup with Ruffy.
Even if Green can sustain early success, all Ruffy needs is one shot. Ruffy will theoretically struggle to find the mark more than he did in either of his previous UFC fights, but the patience and accuracy he possesses are far beyond a fighter with just 12 professional bouts. Green is elite in space but can get into trouble against the fence, which is how he lost to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev. All three of Ruffy’s knockdowns in the UFC have been when he systematically pushed his opponents against the cage.
Final King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (-125)
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