UFC Vegas 103: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev continues on the main card with the main event fight between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev in a flyweight bout. Kape bounced back in a big way in his last fight with a third-round knockout meanwhile, Almabayev comes into his first UFC main event riding a 17-fight winning streak. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Kape-Almabayev prediction and pick.
Manel Kape (20-7) came away with a big knockout in his last fight against Bruno Silva which was a huge bounce back after dropping the decision against Muhammad Mokaev. Now, Kape could be in line for a title fight if he can get past the surging Asu Almabayev this weekend at UFC Vegas 103.
Asu Almabayev (21-2) comes into his first UFC main event on the heels of 17 consecutive victories winning all 4 of his fights inside the octagon. After Brandon Royval withdrew from this bout, Almabayev gets the big opportunity to potentially fight for the title next if he gets past Manel Kape this weekend at the UFC Apex.
Here are the UFC Vegas 103 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 103 Odds: Manel Kape-Asu Almabayev Odds
Manel Kape: -218
Asu Almabayev: +180
Over 4.5 rounds: -154
Under 4.5 rounds: +120
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Why Manel Kape Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Bruno Silva – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 17 (12 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Manel Kape is primed to secure a decisive victory against Asu Almabayev at UFC Vegas 103 this weekend. The Portuguese striker’s explosive power and technical striking prowess give him a significant edge in this matchup. Kape’s impressive 60% knockout rate, with 12 of his 20 wins coming by KO/TKO, demonstrates his ability to end fights quickly and decisively. His recent performance against Bruno Silva, where he secured a third-round TKO victory, showcases his improved cardio and ability to maintain his dangerous striking throughout a fight.
While Almabayev boasts an impressive 17-fight win streak, Kape’s experience against higher-caliber opponents will likely prove crucial. Kape’s superior takedown defense, standing at 77% compared to Almabayev’s 50%, should allow him to keep the fight standing where he excels. Additionally, Kape’s 3-inch reach advantage and more diverse striking arsenal will make it difficult for Almabayev to close the distance without risking significant damage. With his knockout power, technical striking, and improved fight IQ, Kape is well-positioned to exploit Almabayev’s vulnerabilities and secure a statement victory, potentially catapulting himself into title contention in the flyweight division.
Why Asu Almabayev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Matheus Nicolau – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Asu Almabayev is primed to secure a significant upset victory against Manel Kape at UFC Vegas 103 this weekend. The Kazakhstani fighter enters the Octagon with an impressive 17-fight win streak, showcasing his dominance across multiple promotions. Almabayev’s grappling-heavy style, which has led to 9 submission victories in his career, presents a formidable challenge for Kape, who has shown vulnerabilities against strong wrestlers in the past. Almabayev’s relentless pressure and ability to chain takedowns could neutralize Kape’s striking advantage and control the pace of the fight.
While Kape possesses explosive power and flashy striking, Almabayev’s methodical approach and superior cardio are likely to prove decisive over five rounds. Almabayev’s recent performances, including a dominant decision win over Matheus Nicolau, demonstrate his ability to implement a strategic game plan against dangerous strikers. His takedown accuracy, standing at an impressive 66%, suggests he can consistently bring the fight to his preferred domain on the ground. With Kape’s tendency to start slow in fights, Almabayev has the opportunity to establish his grappling early and wear down the Portuguese fighter. Expect Almabayev to utilize his wrestling, secure multiple takedowns, and gradually break Kape’s will, potentially leading to a late submission or a clear-cut unanimous decision victory.
Final Manel Kape-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick
In this highly anticipated flyweight clash at UFC Vegas 103, Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev present a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Kape’s explosive striking and knockout power will be pitted against Almabayev’s relentless wrestling and submission skills. The key to this fight will be Kape’s takedown defense and Almabayev’s ability to close the distance safely. I predict a closely contested battle that will push both fighters to their limits. Expect Kape to defend takedowns early and land significant strikes, potentially hurting Almabayev in the first two rounds.
However, Almabayev’s persistence and cardio advantage will likely come into play as the fight progresses. In the later rounds, Almabayev should find success with his takedowns, controlling Kape on the ground and wearing him down. While Kape will always be dangerous on the feet, I anticipate Almabayev securing a hard-fought split decision victory, utilizing his grappling to edge out the scorecards in a thrilling five-round affair.
Final Manel Kape-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (+180), Over 4.5 Rounds (-154)
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