The UFC Mexico Prelims are heating up and we’re set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Bolivia’s Jose Medina will take on UFC newcomer Ateba Gautier of Cameroon in what should be an exciting bout for as long as it lasts. Check the UFC odds series for our Medina-Gautier prediction and pick.
Jose Medina (11-4) comes into this fight following a loss in his UFC debut to Zach Reese via unanimous decision. Medina appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series with a loss in 2023, but made his short-notice debut following a last minute cancellation to Reese’s opponent. He’ll now see a full camp as he takes on another DWCS alum. Medina stands six feet with a 74.5-inch reach.
Ateba Gautier (6-1) will make his UFC debut following a Contender Series win over Yura Naito in 2024. He landed a left hook and finished the fight with ground strikes in the most impressive performance of the episode, so there’s no surprise that he comes in as the -400 betting favorite during this fight. Gautier stands 6-foot-4 with an 81-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Jose Medina-Ateba Gautier Odds
Jose Medina: +320
Ateba Gautier: -410
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +135
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Why Jose Medina Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Zach Reese – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
After filling in last minute against Zach Reese for his UFC debut as a +550 betting underdog, Jose Medina won the hearts of UFC fans with a wild performance that saw him fight tooth-and-nail until the final bell. Not many gave him a chance coming into the fight, but Medina was able to display his granite chin and ate all the shots coming back his way from a knockout artist like Reese. Medina also managed to land his own offense behind a traditional boxing style that gave Reese trouble once he began sitting back on his punches. Look for an improved version of Medina as he dials-in his weight cut and makes this appearance with a full camp behind him.
Jose Medina certainly isn’t the greatest athlete on the UFC roster, but he’s tremendously skilled with his boxing combinations and has a ton of composure in tight exchanges in the pocket. He’s able to absorb shots and keep moving forward which oftentimes comes as a surprise to his opponents. If he’s able to withstand the early barrage from Gautier in this one, he should find success in turning things up by the later rounds and tiring his opponent with constant striking output.
Why Ateba Gautier Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Yura Naito – TKO (left hook, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Ateba Gautier made a massive impression on Dana White’s Contender Series with a devastating left hook to end the fight. At 6-foot-4, he sports a tremendous frame for the weight class and generates a ton of power behind his shots. He’s still fresh in terms of his striking techniques and is susceptible to making mistakes and leaving himself open, but his ability to keep opponents at range should serve him well against a boxer like Medina. He’s also much more powerful with his leg kicks and can see an instant advantage if he’s able to utilize them early into this fight.
The biggest focus for Ateba Gautier will be keeping his composure during his UFC debut and avoid gassing out early due to the heightened elevation of Mexico City. His last five consecutive fights have all ended within two rounds with his last decision coming as a loss. It’ll be very interesting to see how his cardio holds up during this fight and whether he’ll be able to keep his same output into the second and third rounds. If he’s able to land clean early, however, he should have Medina on the ropes as he looks to chase the quick finish.
Final Jose Medina-Ateba Gautier Prediction & Pick
This is an interesting fight given how big of a betting favorite Ateba Gautier is during his debut. While Jose Medina certainly isn’t the athlete Gautier is, he was able to hang with Zach Reese during his debut and have his own moments throughout the fight. Gautier is a physical specimen in his own right, but we haven’t truly seen him tested past the second round.
I think the elevation is going to play a massive part during this fight and if Jose Medina is able to withstand the early chaos, I expect him to be in the driver’s seat during the later rounds. The total over is a safe bet here, but we’ll also take a chance with the heavy underdog as he turns the tide in his favor during the second-half of the bout.
Final Jose Medina-Ateba Gautier Prediction & Pick: Jose Medina (+320); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-175)
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