It’s time for another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Mexico Prelims as we turn attention towards this next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Roufusport MMA’s own Christian Rodriguez will take on the rising prospect of Melquizael Costa of Brazil. Check the UFC odds series for our Rodriguez-Costa prediction and pick.
Christian Rodriguez (12-2) has gone 5-2 inside the UFC since debuting in 2022. He strung together four-straight wins before falling to Julian Erosa via submission. However, he managed to bounce back most recently with a unanimous decision over Austin Bashi and will look to mount another winning streak here. Rodriguez stands 5-foot-7 with a 71.5-inch reach.
Melquizael Costa (22-7) has gone 3-2 inside the UFC octagon since 2023. He’s riding a two-fight winning streak heading into this bout following wins over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Andre Fili most recently. Now, he’ll come in the slight betting underdog looking to improve his stock on a massive stage. Costa stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Odds
Christian Rodriguez: -155
Melquizael Costa: +130
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
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Why Christian Rodriguez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Austin Bashi – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Christian Rodriguez comes into this bout following a dominant win over a UFC newcomer in Austin Bashi. Rodriguez has been tasked with fighting debuting fighters on a number of occasions and has come out on top each time. He’ll see a more experienced fighter than himself in Melquizael Costa, but Rodriguez has the advantage of facing the better UFC competition up to this point. He’s a handful to deal with on the feet and has great feel for boxing within the pocket. He lands over 3.5 significant strikes per minute at a 48% accuracy, but his defense is also a point of emphasis as he’s able to slip punches and counter effectively.
Rodriguez is also a very skilled wrestler and has only been submitted once in his career, but it’s evident he won’t want to mix things up on the ground against a dangerous finisher like Costa. With his opponent being the more active grappler, Rodriguez will have to lean on his 69% takedown defense and keep this fight standing where he’s most comfortable. He’s fully capable of a dog fight and given the aggressive striking of his opponent, we could see both fighters resort to that by the later rounds.
Why Melquizael Costa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Andre Fili – SUB (guillotine choke, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Melquizael Costa is on a mini hot streak with two consecutive submission wins in his last two fights. He’s extremely effective in taking the back of his opponents and immediately chasing submissions when he hits the ground. His last two opponents weren’t as keen to mix things up on the ground, but Costa does a great job of breaking down along the fence and taking the fight where he’s most comfortable. He also pushes a frantic pace on the feet and is very effective in forcing his opponents to make mistakes from there.
During this fight, Melquizael Costa will have to offer different looks and catch his opponent off-guard to have the upper hand. Rodriguez is very fundamentally sound and doesn’t typically make many unforced errors, so it’ll be up to Costa to force him to become uncomfortable along the fence while he threatens takedowns. On the ground, Costa is the slightly quicker fighter and will constantly be chasing a surprise submission against his opponent.
Final Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of a “Fight of the Night” candidate as both men are no strangers to finishing the fight. The slight striking advantage will go to Christian Rodriguez thanks to his fundamental boxing and ability to slip punches from in the pocket. While Costa is a bit more erratic, he’s very intent on throwing his jab out from and controlling opponents at a safe striking distance.
On the ground, we have to give the advantage to Melquizael Costa thanks to his submission grappling as he’s much more likely to twist his opponent into a compromised spot on the ground. Still, it’ll be very difficult to bring Rodriguez down behind a 69% takedown defense rate and it may take a quick back-take in order to give Costa the advantage.
Still, I think Melquizael Costa has more ways to win this fight and his chin won’t be in much danger given his ability to absorb shots and keep moving forward. If he can force an ugly fight that eventually hits the ground, we should see him take control of this bout with his ability to flow through the jiu jitsu transitions. Let’s roll with the underdog to get the close win during this one.
Final Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Pick: Melquizael Costa (+130)
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