It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-Houston prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Purdue-Houston.
The Houston Cougars are having to play a de facto road game in the Sweet 16. They are the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, and being a No. 1 seed should generally give a team a favorable geographic placement in a bracket. However, that is not the case here. Houston must travel to Indianapolis for a regional semifinal game against Purdue, which has been able to essentially stay at home for several days and will have a loud crowd at its back for Friday night’s late game in Lucas Oil Stadium. When you consider the betting angle for this game, realize that the lines are pricing in Purdue’s semi-homecourt advantage. We can assure you that if this game was in a true neutral site such as Kansas City, Houston would be getting at least 1.5 more points if not two. If the game was in the state of Texas or perhaps in New Orleans or Oklahoma City, Houston might have been favored by three more points than what you are seeing below. We will obviously discuss the spread betting calculus for a game Houston is definitely expected to win outright.
Here are the Purdue-Houston College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Purdue-Houston Odds
Purdue: +7.5 (+100)
Moneyline: +290
Houston: -7.5 (-122)
Moneyline: -375
Over: 131.5 (-115)
Under: 131.5 (-105)
How to Watch Purdue vs Houston
Time: 10:09 p.m. ET/7:09 p.m. PT
TV: TBS
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win
Getting a big homecourt advantage in a Sweet 16 game is a real benefit to Purdue. Remember: We aren’t predicting the outright winner, only the team more likely to cover the spread. Purdue has looked very good in its first two NCAA Tournament games. This is a veteran team with guards who know what to do in various situations. Purdue lost early in the Big Ten Tournament, which gave this team a chance to gain extra rest for the NCAA Tournament. That really helped this group, which looked refreshed in the first two rounds. Now Purdue doesn’t have to travel very far. Players have been sleeping in their own beds, always a plus. The comfort of this environment, combined with the reality that Houston wobbled late against Gonzaga and did not respond well to stress — in a game it failed to cover — points to a Purdue cover. The game will be close.
Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue has looked great in its first two March Madness games, but High Point (first round) and McNeese (second round) are nowhere close to Houston in terms of being a true measuring stick for Purdue. It’s a Grand Canyon-size difference between those two double-digit seeds and the No. 1 seed in the region. Houston is big, powerful, physical, and long. High Point was none of those things. McNeese was powerful and physical but not big or long. The change in the caliber of competition from High Point and McNeese to Houston will be very difficult for Purdue to deal with. Houston’s defense and work ethic are dependable. UH outplayed Gonzaga for most of last weekend’s game until it got a little rattled in the final three minutes. Houston was covering the spread for most of that game before losing focus. As long as Houston doesn’t lose focus here, it should cover the spread, which — again — is lower because of Purdue’s perceived homecourt advantage.
Final Purdue-Houston Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Purdue, but this game feels like a halftime live play, maybe a late-first-half live play if it seems clear the crowd is — or isn’t — affecting Houston.
Final Purdue-Houston Prediction & Pick: Purdue +7.5
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